Sun Oct 11, at TEN: Dare Ogunbowale played 2% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 5; the week 6 projection below. Checked Oct 13, 2026. Full game log.
Through 1 game this season Dare Ogunbowale is averaging 0.0 receptions and 0 receiving yards on 2% of snaps, against 0.6 receptions and 4 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 6 the model projects 0.2 PPR points, RB97 this week.
Week 6 projection
PPR points
0.2
RB97 this week
Receptions
0.2
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
0
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Dare Ogunbowale snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.2 projected
26 wk5
TEN
2%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
IND
13%
7.1%
2
1
6
1
3
0
—
25 wk17
LAC
3%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
LV
18%
2.9%
1
1
2
1
-3
0
—
25 wk15
ARI
31%
15.4%
4
3
32
5
2
0
—
25 wk14
KC
1%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
5
1
—
25 wk13
IND
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
BUF
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
TEN
7%
2.5%
1
1
9
0
0
0
—
25 wk10
JAX
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
1 of 17
6%
5+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 17
6%
Dare Ogunbowale 2026 stats
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2017–2025 (108 games)
Catches per game
0.0
1.0
Receiving yards per game
0.0
8.0
Target share
0.0%
4.3%
Dare Ogunbowale 2025 stats
In 2025 Dare Ogunbowale had 10 catches for 76 yards over 17 games, with 1 touchdown, on 12% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016