Sun Oct 4, at LV: Brashard Smith played 3% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 4; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 3 games this season Brashard Smith is averaging 0.3 receptions and 1 receiving yards on 6% of snaps, against 1.5 receptions and 10 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 1.3 PPR points, RB78 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
1.3
RB78 this week
Receptions
0.8
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
0
Anytime TD
8%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Brashard Smith snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk4
LV
3%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.6 -0.6
26 wk3
MIA
8%
4.3%
1
1
4
0
0
0
1.0 +0.0
26 wk2
IND
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
LV
53%
13.3%
4
2
2
12
56
0
—
25 wk17
DEN
14%
20.0%
4
3
5
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
TEN
18%
4.5%
1
1
4
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
LAC
5%
0.0%
0
0
0
2
1
0
—
25 wk14
HOU
8%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
7
0
—
25 wk13
DAL
6%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
IND
19%
9.3%
4
3
31
1
5
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
6 of 18
33%
5+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 18
6%
Brashard Smith 2026 stats
Through 3 games of 2026, Brashard Smith has 1 catches for 4 receiving yards (0.3 catches and 1.3 yards a game), on 6% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (3 games)
2025–2025 (17 games)
Catches per game
0.3
1.5
Receiving yards per game
1.3
10.1
Target share
1.4%
6.6%
Brashard Smith 2025 stats
In 2025 Brashard Smith had 25 catches for 172 yards over 17 games, with 1 touchdown, on 17% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016