Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If David Montgomery is out, who gets his targets?

The Houston Texans room absorbs +0.20 receptions, and Woody Marks takes the largest single share at +0.20. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if David Montgomery sitsWoody Marks+0.2RB 50% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
Dalton Schultz TE · 67% snaps4.904.90+0.00
Nico Collins WR · 72% snaps4.404.40+0.00
Xavier Hutchinson WR · 68% snaps2.802.80+0.00
Kayshon Boutte WR · 59% snaps2.002.00+0.00
Jaylin Noel WR · 45% snaps2.002.00+0.00
David Montgomery RB · 50% snaps2.00OUT
Jared Wayne WR · 41% snaps1.901.90+0.00
Woody Marks RB · 50% snaps1.701.90+0.20
Foster Moreau TE · 36% snaps1.301.30+0.00
Lewis Bond WR · 16% snaps0.800.80+0.00
Marlin Klein TE · 11% snaps0.600.60+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1122,0942.36
Tight ends+0.1031,2582.16
Backs+0.6101,04211.17

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

David Montgomery’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3