5′11″, 200 lb · age 24 · Iowa State · 2025 draft, round 3
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at JAX: Jaylin Noel caught 4 of 4 targets for 107 yards, 1 touchdown on 49% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Jaylin Noel is averaging 2.8 receptions and 56 receiving yards on 45% of snaps, against 1.4 receptions and 15 receiving yards over 19 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 7.3 PPR points, WR54 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
7.3
WR54 this week
Receptions
2.4
1.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
35
Anytime TD
23%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jaylin Noel snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.4 projected
26 wk6
JAX
49%
12.5%
4
4
107
0
0
1
2.2 +1.8
26 wk5
TEN
45%
15.2%
5
5
41
1
1
1
2.0 +3.0
26 wk4
DAL
62%
11.5%
3
3
85
1
4
0
2.0 +1.0
26 wk3
IND
26%
8.0%
2
2
17
1
8
0
2.5 -0.5
26 wk2
CIN
60%
10.0%
5
1
31
1
13
0
—
26 wk1
BUF
30%
5.4%
2
2
53
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
NE
8%
2.2%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
PIT
9%
3.1%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
IND
16%
3.6%
1
1
13
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
LAC
25%
15.4%
4
3
54
1
2
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
4 of 21
19%
5+ receptions
1 of 21
5%
7+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 21
19%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 21
5%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 21
10%
Jaylin Noel 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Jaylin Noel has 17 catches for 334 receiving yards (2.8 catches and 55.7 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 45% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2025–2025 (19 games)
Catches per game
2.8
1.4
Receiving yards per game
55.7
15.4
Target share
10.4%
5.7%
Jaylin Noel 2025 stats
In 2025 Jaylin Noel had 26 catches for 292 yards over 19 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 24% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016