Sun Oct 18, vs NYJ: Efton Chism III was targeted once without a catch on 62% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Efton Chism III is averaging 1.8 receptions and 20 receiving yards on 45% of snaps, against 0.4 receptions and 10 receiving yards over 10 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 6.2 PPR points, WR63 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
6.2
WR63 this week
Receptions
2.3
1.9 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
25
Anytime TD
21%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Efton Chism III snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.3 projected
26 wk6
NYJ
62%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
0
0
2.0 -2.0
26 wk5
LV
76%
19.4%
6
5
57
1
2
0
1.6 +3.4
26 wk4
BUF
45%
11.1%
4
2
42
0
0
1
0.7 +1.3
26 wk3
JAX
25%
6.7%
2
1
1
0
0
0
0.7 +0.3
26 wk2
PIT
18%
4.8%
1
1
-2
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
HOU
34%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
LAC
22%
3.7%
1
1
20
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
MIA
44%
5.0%
1
1
35
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
NYJ
62%
8.0%
2
2
40
0
0
1
—
25 wk13
NYG
3%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 11
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 11
9%
Efton Chism III 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Efton Chism III has 9 catches for 98 receiving yards (1.8 catches and 19.6 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 45% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (10 games)
Catches per game
1.8
0.4
Receiving yards per game
19.6
9.5
Target share
9.0%
1.7%
Efton Chism III 2025 stats
In 2025 Efton Chism III had 4 catches for 95 yards over 10 games, with 1 touchdown, on 20% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016