Sun Oct 18, at TB: DK Metcalf caught 11 of 15 targets for 93 yards on 95% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season DK Metcalf is averaging 5.0 receptions and 53 receiving yards on 95% of snaps, against 3.8 receptions and 56 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 13.4 PPR points, WR15 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
13.4
WR15 this week
Receptions
4.9
1.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
62
Anytime TD
31%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.05 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
DK Metcalf snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.9 projected
26 wk6
TB
95%
34.1%
15
11
93
0
0
0
4.1 +6.9
26 wk5
IND
92%
13.3%
4
3
12
1
11
0
4.1 -1.1
26 wk4
CLE
97%
23.1%
9
5
115
0
0
0
3.9 +1.1
26 wk3
CIN
95%
16.1%
5
3
31
0
0
1
4.1 -1.1
26 wk2
NE
97%
24.3%
9
4
27
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
ATL
96%
27.0%
10
4
40
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
HOU
86%
16.1%
5
2
42
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
DET
88%
23.7%
9
4
42
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
MIA
79%
11.1%
3
3
55
0
0
1
—
25 wk14
BAL
83%
36.4%
12
7
148
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
16 of 18
89%
5+ receptions
5 of 18
28%
7+ receptions
1 of 18
6%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 18
39%
75+ receiving yards
4 of 18
22%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 18
39%
DK Metcalf 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, DK Metcalf has 30 catches for 318 receiving yards (5.0 catches and 53.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 95% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2019–2025 (117 games)
Catches per game
5.0
4.5
Receiving yards per game
53.0
65.5
Target share
23.0%
23.7%
DK Metcalf 2025 stats
In 2025 DK Metcalf had 61 catches for 892 yards over 16 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 87% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016