Sun Oct 18, at LA: Michael Wilson caught 4 of 7 targets for 32 yards on 92% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Michael Wilson is averaging 5.5 receptions and 53 receiving yards on 90% of snaps, against 4.6 receptions and 59 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 14.3 PPR points, WR12 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
14.3
WR12 this week
Receptions
5.2
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
66
Anytime TD
35%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Michael Wilson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.2 projected
26 wk6
LA
92%
20.6%
7
4
32
0
5.4 -1.4
26 wk5
DET
84%
15.2%
7
4
30
0
5.2 -1.2
26 wk4
NYG
94%
37.1%
13
7
95
0
5.1 +1.9
26 wk3
SF
93%
34.0%
17
11
89
1
4.3 +6.7
26 wk2
SEA
94%
26.9%
7
2
18
0
—
26 wk1
LAC
85%
18.9%
7
5
56
0
—
25 wk18
LA
93%
28.6%
8
5
99
1
—
25 wk17
CIN
86%
28.6%
10
5
89
1
—
25 wk16
ATL
86%
10.3%
3
2
52
1
—
25 wk15
HOU
85%
28.9%
11
5
54
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 19
68%
5+ receptions
7 of 19
37%
7+ receptions
3 of 19
16%
50+ receiving yards
9 of 19
47%
75+ receiving yards
5 of 19
26%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 19
32%
Michael Wilson 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Michael Wilson has 33 catches for 320 receiving yards (5.5 catches and 53.3 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 90% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (46 games)
Catches per game
5.5
3.5
Receiving yards per game
53.3
46.1
Target share
25.5%
16.0%
Michael Wilson 2025 stats
In 2025 Michael Wilson had 78 catches for 1,006 yards over 17 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 81% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016