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Arizona Cardinals
This is a top-heavy committee. Trey McBride holds 29.7% of the targets, and the 13 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 238 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The Arizona Cardinals call it close to neutral: pass rate over expectation +2.0%, 10th of 32, on 64 plays a game (4th). Raw pass rate is 60.8%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | +2.0% | 10th |
| Plays per game | 63.7 | 4th |
| Points per game | 21.0 | 24th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 21.2% of dropbacks (10th) and opened 2.13 yards before contact a carry (24th). The defense pressures the quarterback on 21.3% of opposing dropbacks (26th).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 21.2% | 10th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 2.13 | 24th |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 21.3% | 26th |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the Arizona Cardinals, 55% go to receivers, 29% to tight ends and 16% to backs. Opponents average 8.22 yards a target (30th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is calling it much as it has: pass rate over expectation +2.0% this season against +0.4% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Wilson WR1 | 90% | 25.5% | 5.2 | 66 | who benefits |
| Kendrick Bourne WR2 | 59% | 13.3% | 2.5 | 27 | who benefits |
| Reggie Virgil WR3 | 11% | 5.4% | 1.0 | 14 | — |
| Jalen Brooks WR depth | 21% | 4.3% | 1.1 | 14 | — |
| Devin Duvernay WR depth | 9% | 0.8% | 0.1 | 0 | — |
| Simi Fehoko WR depth | 8% | 0.0% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey McBride TE1 | 91% | 29.7% | 7.1 | 66 | who benefits |
| Elijah Higgins TE2 | 38% | 4.5% | 1.9 | 14 | who benefits |
| Teagan Quitoriano TE3 | 42% | 2.2% | 0.7 | 8 | — |
| Hunter Long TE depth | 32% | 1.2% | 0.0 | — | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love RB1 | 48% | 7.5% | 1.9 | 11 | who benefits |
| Tyler Allgeier RB2 | 52% | 6.2% | 1.8 | 13 | who benefits |
| Bam Knight RB3 | 16% | 1.5% | 1.0 | 5 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 31 carries and 133 rushing yards, with Jeremiyah Love taking 47% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremiyah Love RB | 14.7 | 61 | 4.12 | 20% |
| Bam Knight RB | 8.6 | 41 | 4.74 | 13% |
| Tyler Allgeier RB | 8.0 | 32 | 4.04 | 19% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.