6′4″, 246 lb · age 26 · Colorado State · 2022 draft, round 2
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at LA: Trey McBride caught 7 of 9 targets for 53 yards on 97% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Trey McBride is averaging 8.2 receptions and 60 receiving yards on 90% of snaps, against 7.4 receptions and 73 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 15.2 PPR points, TE2 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.2
TE2 this week
Receptions
7.1
0.4 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
66
Anytime TD
38%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 3 and 11 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Trey McBride snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
7.1 projected
26 wk6
LA
97%
26.5%
9
7
53
0
7.5 -0.5
26 wk5
DET
90%
21.7%
10
9
66
1
7.3 +1.7
26 wk4
NYG
97%
34.3%
12
7
31
0
7.3 -0.3
26 wk3
SF
91%
22.0%
11
9
75
0
7.0 +2.0
26 wk2
SEA
88%
38.5%
10
8
41
1
—
26 wk1
LAC
80%
35.1%
13
9
95
1
—
25 wk18
LA
95%
28.6%
8
7
65
0
—
25 wk17
CIN
96%
37.1%
13
10
76
1
—
25 wk16
ATL
96%
27.6%
8
4
27
0
—
25 wk15
HOU
92%
34.2%
13
12
134
2
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
19 of 19
100%
5+ receptions
18 of 19
95%
7+ receptions
12 of 19
63%
50+ receiving yards
15 of 19
79%
75+ receiving yards
8 of 19
42%
100+ receiving yards
3 of 19
16%
Scored a touchdown
11 of 19
58%
Trey McBride 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Trey McBride has 49 catches for 361 receiving yards (8.2 catches and 60.2 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 91% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (66 games)
Catches per game
8.2
5.3
Receiving yards per game
60.2
52.7
Target share
29.7%
20.9%
Trey McBride 2025 stats
In 2025 Trey McBride had 126 catches for 1,239 yards over 17 games, with 11 touchdowns, on 91% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016