Mon Oct 19, vs WAS: George Kittle caught 5 of 8 targets for 69 yards, 1 touchdown on 89% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season George Kittle is averaging 4.3 receptions and 56 receiving yards on 75% of snaps, against 4.8 receptions and 53 receiving yards over 12 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 13.0 PPR points, TE3 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
13.0
TE3 this week
Receptions
4.6
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
62
Anytime TD
39%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 8 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
George Kittle snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
4.6 projected
26 wk6
WAS
89%
27.6%
8
5
69
1
4.2 +0.8
26 wk5
SEA
92%
22.2%
6
5
24
0
4.3 +0.7
26 wk4
DEN
91%
20.7%
6
4
70
1
4.1 -0.1
26 wk3
ARI
85%
26.9%
7
6
82
2
3.9 +2.1
26 wk2
MIA
48%
19.0%
4
4
80
1
—
26 wk1
LA
46%
14.7%
5
2
12
0
—
25 wk19
PHI
22%
6.7%
2
1
6
0
—
25 wk18
SEA
95%
25.9%
7
5
29
0
—
25 wk16
IND
62%
24.2%
8
7
115
1
—
25 wk15
TEN
96%
32.1%
9
8
88
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 14
79%
5+ receptions
6 of 14
43%
7+ receptions
3 of 14
21%
50+ receiving yards
7 of 14
50%
75+ receiving yards
5 of 14
36%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 14
7%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 14
50%
George Kittle 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, George Kittle has 26 catches for 337 receiving yards (4.3 catches and 56.2 yards a game), with 5 touchdowns, on 75% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2017–2025 (137 games)
Catches per game
4.3
4.6
Receiving yards per game
56.2
61.8
Target share
21.9%
21.0%
George Kittle 2025 stats
In 2025 George Kittle had 58 catches for 634 yards over 12 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 76% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016