6′5″, 250 lb · age 29 · Ohio State · 2021 draft, round 5
Week 6 stats
Mon Oct 19, vs WAS: Luke Farrell played 48% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Luke Farrell is averaging 0.3 receptions and 3 receiving yards on 52% of snaps, against 0.6 receptions and 5 receiving yards over 19 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 1.7 PPR points, TE69 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
1.7
TE69 this week
Receptions
0.3
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
11
Anytime TD
6%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Luke Farrell snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.3 projected
26 wk6
WAS
48%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.8 -0.8
26 wk5
SEA
60%
3.7%
1
0
0
0
0.7 -0.7
26 wk4
DEN
44%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.9 -0.9
26 wk3
ARI
33%
3.8%
1
0
0
0
1.1 -1.1
26 wk2
MIA
54%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
LA
71%
5.9%
2
2
19
0
—
25 wk20
SEA
57%
7.4%
2
1
1
0
—
25 wk19
PHI
32%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
SEA
19%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
CHI
38%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 21
10%
Luke Farrell 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Luke Farrell has 2 catches for 19 receiving yards (0.3 catches and 3.2 yards a game), on 52% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2021–2025 (86 games)
Catches per game
0.3
0.6
Receiving yards per game
3.2
4.7
Target share
2.2%
2.3%
Luke Farrell 2025 stats
In 2025 Luke Farrell had 12 catches for 86 yards over 19 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 36% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016