Sun Oct 18, vs NO: Isaiah Likely caught 6 of 11 targets for 99 yards, 1 touchdown on 91% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Isaiah Likely is averaging 6.5 receptions and 64 receiving yards on 73% of snaps, against 1.9 receptions and 22 receiving yards over 14 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 12.8 PPR points, TE4 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
12.8
TE4 this week
Receptions
5.2
3.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
51
Anytime TD
37%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Isaiah Likely snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.2 projected
26 wk6
NO
91%
25.6%
11
6
99
1
5.5 +0.5
26 wk5
WAS
80%
25.0%
13
11
94
2
3.5 +7.5
26 wk4
ARI
66%
41.4%
12
7
66
0
3.2 +3.8
26 wk3
TEN
84%
23.8%
5
2
13
0
3.3 -1.3
26 wk2
LA
69%
31.2%
10
5
33
0
—
26 wk1
DAL
49%
27.6%
8
8
78
2
—
25 wk18
PIT
49%
11.8%
2
2
32
0
—
25 wk17
GB
70%
15.0%
3
3
27
0
—
25 wk16
NE
40%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
CIN
51%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
6 of 16
38%
5+ receptions
3 of 16
19%
7+ receptions
1 of 16
6%
50+ receiving yards
3 of 16
19%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 16
12%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 16
12%
Isaiah Likely 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Isaiah Likely has 39 catches for 383 receiving yards (6.5 catches and 63.8 yards a game), with 5 touchdowns, on 73% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (68 games)
Catches per game
6.5
2.1
Receiving yards per game
63.8
25.6
Target share
29.1%
11.1%
Isaiah Likely 2025 stats
In 2025 Isaiah Likely had 27 catches for 307 yards over 14 games, with 1 touchdown, on 56% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016