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New York Giants
This is a top-heavy committee. Isaiah Likely holds 29.1% of the targets, and the 16 tracked pass-catchers project for 25 receptions and 254 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The New York Giants run more than the situation calls for: pass rate over expectation -4.6%, 26th of 32, on 63 plays a game (7th). Raw pass rate is 57.3%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | -4.6% | 26th |
| Plays per game | 63.2 | 7th |
| Points per game | 22.7 | 18th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 20.4% of dropbacks (7th) and opened 2.12 yards before contact a carry (25th). The defense pressures the quarterback on 19.1% of opposing dropbacks (32nd).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 20.4% | 7th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 2.12 | 25th |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 19.1% | 32nd |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the New York Giants, 60% go to receivers, 27% to tight ends and 13% to backs. Opponents average 6.42 yards a target (8th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is calling it much as it has: pass rate over expectation -4.6% this season against -1.9% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malik Nabers WR1 | 76% | 28.3% | 6.5 | 65 | who benefits |
| Malachi Fields WR2 | 76% | 12.5% | 2.6 | 27 | who benefits |
| Darnell Mooney WR3 | 55% | 9.3% | 1.6 | 24 | — |
| Charlie Jones WR depth | 14% | 2.3% | 0.6 | 11 | — |
| Odell Beckham Jr. WR depth | 10% | 1.6% | 0.3 | 7 | — |
| Braxton Berrios WR depth | 9% | 0.9% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Dalen Cambre WR depth | 2% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 0 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Likely TE1 | 73% | 29.1% | 5.2 | 51 | who benefits |
| Theo Johnson TE2 | 34% | 5.0% | 1.6 | 19 | who benefits |
| Chris Manhertz TE depth | 32% | 0.4% | 0.1 | 1 | — |
| Thomas Fidone II TE3 | 38% | 0.0% | 0.7 | 3 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo RB1 | 55% | 6.8% | 2.2 | 18 | who benefits |
| Devin Singletary RB3 | 34% | 6.4% | 1.3 | 10 | — |
| Tyrone Tracy Jr. RB depth | 14% | 2.1% | 1.4 | 11 | — |
| Patrick Ricard RB depth | 36% | 1.7% | 0.5 | 7 | — |
| Najee Harris RB2 | 17% | 0.4% | 0.0 | — | — |
The ground game
Projected for 23 carries and 78 rushing yards, with Cam Skattebo taking 70% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Skattebo RB | 15.8 | 53 | 3.34 | 15% |
| Devin Singletary RB | 6.7 | 25 | 3.75 | 9% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.