Theo Johnson

New York Giants · Tight endTE2

6′6″, 264 lb · age 25 · Penn State · 2024 draft, round 4

Week 5 stats

Sun Oct 11, at WAS: Theo Johnson caught 2 of 3 targets for 35 yards on 48% of snaps.

Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.

Through 5 games this season Theo Johnson is averaging 0.8 receptions and 11 receiving yards on 34% of snaps, against 3.0 receptions and 35 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.1 PPR points, TE42 this week.

Week 7 projection

PPR points

4.1

TE42 this week

Receptions

1.6

1.4 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.

His snap share is down, but he is on the injury report, so the drop is not read as a smaller role.

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

Theo Johnson snap share, game by game

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.6 projected
26 wk5	WAS	48%	5.8%	3	2	35	0	1.0 +1.0
26 wk4	ARI	33%	3.4%	1	1	11	1	0.9 +0.1
26 wk3	TEN	17%	0.0%	0	0	0	0	1.9 -1.9
26 wk2	LA	28%	12.5%	4	0	0	0	—
26 wk1	DAL	46%	3.4%	1	1	9	0	—
25 wk16	MIN	96%	15.4%	2	0	0	0	—
25 wk15	WAS	87%	11.1%	4	3	72	0	—
25 wk13	NE	89%	33.3%	8	3	29	0	—
25 wk12	DET	78%	14.7%	5	3	77	0	—
25 wk11	GB	92%	13.8%	4	3	36	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	11 of 17	65%
5+ receptions	2 of 17	12%
7+ receptions	1 of 17	6%
50+ receiving yards	4 of 17	24%
75+ receiving yards	2 of 17	12%
100+ receiving yards	0 of 17	0%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 17	24%

Theo Johnson 2026 stats

Through 5 games of 2026, Theo Johnson has 4 catches for 55 receiving yards (0.8 catches and 11.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 34% of snaps.

Against the rest of his career

	2026 so far (5 games)	2024–2025 (27 games)
Catches per game	0.8	2.7
Receiving yards per game	11.0	31.8
Target share	5.0%	14.6%

Theo Johnson 2025 stats

In 2025 Theo Johnson had 45 catches for 528 yards over 15 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 87% of snaps.

Season by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.

Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.

The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.

3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Theo Johnson sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the NYG room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole New York Giants roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

Related players

The rest of the New York Giants tight end room, by target share.

Ranked next to him at TE for week 7.

Will Mallory TE39 · IND
Davis Allen TE40 · LA
Elijah Higgins TE41 · ARI
Zach Ertz TE43 · PHI
Erick All TE44 · CIN
Cole Kmet TE45 · CHI

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 7