Sun Oct 18, at ATL: Cole Kmet caught 2 of 2 targets for 3 yards on 74% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Cole Kmet is averaging 1.2 receptions and 10 receiving yards on 62% of snaps, against 1.8 receptions and 21 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.7 PPR points, TE45 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.7
TE45 this week
Receptions
1.2
0.6 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
15%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Cole Kmet snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.2 projected
26 wk6
ATL
74%
6.1%
2
2
3
0
0
0
1.3 +0.7
26 wk5
GB
42%
5.0%
2
1
8
0
0
0
1.9 -0.9
26 wk4
NYJ
73%
6.5%
2
2
13
0
0
0
1.7 +0.3
26 wk3
PHI
60%
2.9%
1
0
0
0
0
0
1.9 -1.9
26 wk2
MIN
69%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
CAR
57%
11.5%
3
2
35
0
0
1
—
25 wk20
LA
77%
7.1%
3
3
31
0
0
1
—
25 wk19
GB
55%
4.3%
2
0
0
1
1
0
—
25 wk18
DET
89%
10.3%
3
2
16
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
SF
61%
7.7%
3
2
16
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
4 of 20
20%
5+ receptions
1 of 20
5%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 20
20%
Cole Kmet 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Cole Kmet has 7 catches for 59 receiving yards (1.2 catches and 9.8 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 62% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2020–2025 (103 games)
Catches per game
1.2
2.9
Receiving yards per game
9.8
29.0
Target share
5.9%
13.7%
Cole Kmet 2025 stats
In 2025 Cole Kmet had 33 catches for 378 yards over 18 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 71% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016