Zach Ertz

Philadelphia Eagles · Tight endTE2

Over 13 games last season Zach Ertz averaged 3.8 receptions and 39 yards on 66% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 2.6 receptions.

Week 4 projection

Receptions

2.6

1.3 below his 2025 average

Receiving yards

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

How his role is trending

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	TD	We said
26 wk4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.6 projected
26 wk3	CHI	—	8.0%	2	1	9	0	—
25 wk14	MIN	69%	10.0%	2	1	11	0	—
25 wk13	DEN	67%	28.9%	13	10	106	0	—
25 wk11	MIA	75%	27.6%	8	4	42	0	—
25 wk10	DET	81%	22.7%	5	4	54	0	—
25 wk9	SEA	63%	19.0%	4	4	46	0	—
25 wk8	KC	62%	20.0%	6	4	16	0	—
25 wk7	DAL	67%	22.6%	7	3	37	1	—
25 wk6	CHI	60%	25.0%	6	6	43	1	—
25 wk5	LAC	53%	4.3%	1	0	0	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

How often he has actually done it

Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.

Outcome	Games it happened	How often
3+ receptions	10 of 13	77%
5+ receptions	3 of 13	23%
7+ receptions	1 of 13	8%
50+ receiving yards	3 of 13	23%
75+ receiving yards	1 of 13	8%
100+ receiving yards	1 of 13	8%
Scored a touchdown	4 of 13	31%

Career by season

Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.

Season	Games	Catches/gm	Rec yds/gm	Targets/gm	TDs, season	Snap share	Target share
2026 so far	1	1.0	9.0	2.0	0	0%	8.0%
2025	13	3.8	38.8	5.5	4	66%	19.3%
2024	20	4.2	40.5	5.8	8	67%	18.4%
2023	7	3.9	26.7	6.1	1	65%	19.1%
2022	10	4.7	40.6	6.9	4	79%	17.9%
2021	18	4.3	43.6	6.4	5	75%	18.4%
2020	11	3.3	30.5	6.5	1	81%	18.6%
2019	16	5.6	60.0	8.7	6	85%	23.3%
2018	18	7.0	70.3	9.5	8	91%	25.4%
2017	17	5.4	59.8	7.8	9	80%	22.8%
2016	14	5.6	58.3	7.6	4	86%	18.4%

11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016

If Zach Ertz sits, who gets his work?The measured redistribution across the PHI room — with sample size and t-statistic The whole Philadelphia Eagles roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

What we have measured about tight ends

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Is any defense actually “weak against tight ends”?Not a real trait

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 4