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If Zach Ertz is out, who gets his targets?
The Philadelphia Eagles room absorbs +0.48 receptions, and Dallas Goedert takes the largest single share at +0.24. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith WR · 92% snaps | 5.20 | 5.20 | +0.00 |
| Dontayvion Wicks WR · 76% snaps | 2.80 | 2.80 | +0.00 |
| Dallas Goedert TE · 60% snaps | 2.80 | 3.04 | +0.24 |
| Zach Ertz TE · 0% snaps | 2.60 | — | OUT |
| Makai Lemon WR · 64% snaps | 2.50 | 2.50 | +0.00 |
| Saquon Barkley RB · 44% snaps | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Will Shipley RB · 34% snaps | 1.40 | 1.40 | +0.00 |
| Marquise Brown WR · 22% snaps | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| Tank Bigsby RB · 22% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| Darius Cooper WR · 28% snaps | 1.10 | 1.10 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Mundt TE · 50% snaps | 1.10 | 1.34 | +0.24 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.107 | 2,160 | 2.29 |
| Tight ends | +0.492 | 1,024 | 9.57 |
| Backs | -0.045 | 1,259 | -0.92 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Zach Ertz’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection