Sun Oct 11, at JAX: Dameon Pierce ran 11 times for 14 yards, caught 2 for -2 on 77% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 6 projection below. Checked Oct 13, 2026. Full game log.
Dameon Pierce has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 1 game of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.
Week 6 projection
PPR points
7.5
RB37 this week
Rush attempts
11.2
Rushing yards
35
Receptions
2.1
Receiving yards
19
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Dameon Pierce snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk6
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.1 projected
26 wk5
JAX
77%
13.5%
5
2
-2
11
14
0
—
25 wk18
LV
8%
0.0%
0
0
0
4
10
0
—
25 wk10
JAX
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk8
SF
—
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk5
BAL
23%
0.0%
0
0
0
7
21
0
—
25 wk1
LA
11%
3.7%
1
0
0
3
5
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 5 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 5
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 5
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 5
0%
Dameon Pierce 2026 stats
Through 1 game of 2026, Dameon Pierce has 11 carries for 14 rushing yards (14.0 a game) and 2 catches for -2 receiving yards (2.0 catches and -2.0 yards a game), on 77% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2022–2025 (47 games)
Catches per game
2.0
1.0
Receiving yards per game
-2.0
5.7
Target share
13.5%
4.0%
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016