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Philadelphia Eagles
This is a committee. DeVonta Smith holds 32.3% of the targets, and the 16 tracked pass-catchers project for 27 receptions and 271 receiving yards in week 7.
What this staff chooses
The Philadelphia Eagles call it close to neutral: pass rate over expectation +1.0%, 12th of 32, on 56 plays a game (25th). Raw pass rate is 61.9%, but that follows the scoreboard — a trailing team throws. PROE subtracts the league rate for the same down, distance and score, so what is left is the CHOICE.
Pass rate over expectation is the most repeatable offensive trait we measure: split the season into odd and even weeks and a team agrees with itself at 0.84. Most things a defense does sit near 0.32.
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pass rate over expectation | +1.0% | 12th |
| Plays per game | 56.2 | 25th |
| Points per game | 17.7 | 28th |
The line, and the front it faces
The offensive line has allowed pressure on 27.8% of dropbacks (27th) and opened 2.01 yards before contact a carry (27th). The defense pressures the quarterback on 22.0% of opposing dropbacks (25th).
| This season | League rank | |
|---|---|---|
| Pressure allowed, per dropback | 27.8% | 27th |
| Yards before contact, per carry | 2.01 | 27th |
| Pressure generated, per dropback | 22.0% | 25th |
What this defense concedes
Of the passes thrown at the Philadelphia Eagles, 64% go to receivers, 20% to tight ends and 16% to backs. Opponents average 7.40 yards a target (17th).
Read this half with more caution than the half above. How a defense DISTRIBUTES the targets it faces repeats moderately — 0.34 for backs, 0.23 for receivers, 0.09 for tight ends. How many YARDS it allows a tight end per target repeats at 0.02, which is indistinguishable from chance. "Weak against tight ends" is the least reproducible claim in this dataset and one of the most repeated.
Season by season
This staff is calling it much as it has: pass rate over expectation +1.0% this season against -1.6% across the previous 10 seasons.
Who owns the targets
Trailing target share, largest first. Target share reproduces at 0.92 between halves of a season, so this is a stable picture of the pecking order rather than a snapshot of one good game.
Receivers
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith WR1 | 87% | 32.3% | 4.9 | 70 | who benefits |
| Dontayvion Wicks WR2 | 80% | 17.8% | 3.3 | 34 | who benefits |
| Makai Lemon WR3 | 72% | 15.6% | 3.3 | 33 | — |
| Marquise Brown WR depth | 22% | 14.2% | 1.6 | — | — |
| Darius Cooper WR depth | 50% | 8.2% | 2.0 | 22 | — |
| Britain Covey WR depth | 21% | 1.7% | 0.2 | 0 | — |
| Elijah Moore WR depth | 15% | 1.1% | 0.1 | 6 | — |
Tight ends
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Goedert TE1 | 68% | 17.8% | 3.8 | 32 | who benefits |
| Zach Ertz TE2 | 23% | 9.8% | 1.3 | 21 | who benefits |
| Johnny Mundt TE3 | 49% | 3.0% | 0.9 | 8 | — |
| E.J. Jenkins TE depth | 18% | 0.0% | 0.1 | 1 | — |
Backs
| Player | Snap share | Target share | Proj. catches | Proj. rec yards | If he sits |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce RB1 | 86% | 12.4% | 3.1 | 25 | who benefits |
| Saquon Barkley RB3 | 42% | 6.7% | 1.7 | 15 | — |
| Will Shipley RB depth | 33% | 5.6% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Tank Bigsby RB2 | 24% | 3.5% | 0.0 | — | — |
| Carson Steele RB depth | 5% | 2.3% | 0.9 | 6 | — |
The ground game
Projected for 26 carries and 89 rushing yards, with Dameon Pierce taking 54% of the work. Carries per game is the second most repeatable thing a player has — 0.97 between halves of a season — so a backfield split holds up far better than a touchdown rate does.
| Player | Carries | Rush yds | Yds/carry | Anytime TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce RB | 13.9 | 44 | 3.14 | 49% |
| Saquon Barkley RB | 11.9 | 46 | 3.84 | 20% |
Whose role has changed since last season
Snap share this season against last, for anyone who has moved at least six points. This is the input the model leans on hardest early in a year, because snap share is already reliable at 0.84 after two games while receptions manage 0.66.