Over 10 games last season Elijah Moore averaged 1.0 receptions and 12 yards on 30% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 0.5 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
0.5
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
2
His snap share has fallen from last season. The projection is pulled down to reflect the smaller role rather than last year’s.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.5 projected
26 wk3
CHI
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
NE
12%
3.7%
1
1
4
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
HOU
41%
9.4%
3
1
-3
0
0
0
—
25 wk10
MIA
37%
5.1%
2
2
9
1
-1
0
—
25 wk9
KC
26%
4.0%
1
1
28
0
0
0
—
25 wk8
CAR
46%
17.4%
4
1
14
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
ATL
25%
7.7%
2
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk4
NO
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
0
0
—
25 wk3
MIA
23%
11.1%
3
2
30
1
11
0
—
25 wk2
NYJ
40%
4.0%
1
1
31
2
6
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 10 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 10
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 10
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 10
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 10
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 10
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 10
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 10
10%
This season against the rest of his career
2026 so far (1 game)
2021–2025 (72 games)
Catches per game
0.0
2.9
Receiving yards per game
0.0
31.8
Target share
0.0%
14.1%
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016