Sun Oct 18, at IND: Tony Pollard ran 19 times for 76 yards on 76% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Tony Pollard is averaging 14.5 carries for 58 rushing yards and 1.3 catches on 56% of snaps, against 14.2 carries for 64 rushing yards and 1.9 catches over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 12.3 PPR points, RB18 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
12.3
RB18 this week
Rush attempts
15.4
Rushing yards
64
Receptions
1.8
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Anytime TD
34%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tony Pollard snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.8 projected
26 wk6
IND
76%
4.5%
1
0
0
19
76
0
1.6 -1.6
26 wk5
HOU
48%
2.9%
1
0
0
14
52
0
2.0 -2.0
26 wk4
BAL
53%
14.3%
4
2
2
16
48
1
2.0 -0.0
26 wk3
NYG
53%
11.4%
4
4
22
17
74
0
1.6 +2.4
26 wk2
PHI
55%
5.9%
1
1
1
14
64
0
—
26 wk1
NYJ
52%
7.1%
2
1
-1
7
35
0
—
25 wk18
JAX
63%
9.1%
3
3
17
14
48
0
—
25 wk17
NO
50%
5.7%
2
2
10
18
85
0
—
25 wk16
KC
55%
0.0%
0
0
0
21
102
0
—
25 wk15
SF
53%
7.4%
2
1
8
14
104
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
6 of 19
32%
5+ receptions
1 of 19
5%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 19
21%
Tony Pollard 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Tony Pollard has 87 carries for 349 rushing yards (58.2 a game) and 8 catches for 24 receiving yards (1.3 catches and 4.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 56% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2019–2025 (116 games)
Catches per game
1.3
2.3
Receiving yards per game
4.0
15.8
Target share
7.7%
8.8%
Tony Pollard 2025 stats
In 2025 Tony Pollard had 242 carries for 1,082 yards and 33 catches for 206 yards over 17 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 62% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016