Sun Oct 4, vs NYJ: Kyle Monangai ran 30 times for 146 yards, caught 1 for 4, 2 touchdowns on 54% of snaps.
Stats through week 4; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season Kyle Monangai is averaging 15.0 carries for 81 rushing yards and 1.2 catches on 40% of snaps, against 10.0 carries for 45 rushing yards and 1.2 catches over 19 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.8 PPR points, RB21 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.8
RB21 this week
Rush attempts
17.0
Rushing yards
81
Receptions
1.1
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
6
Anytime TD
37%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Kyle Monangai snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.1 projected
26 wk4
NYJ
54%
3.2%
1
1
4
30
146
2
1.1 -0.1
26 wk3
PHI
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
10
31
0
1.7 -1.7
26 wk2
MIN
34%
6.7%
2
2
11
10
47
0
—
26 wk1
CAR
43%
7.7%
2
2
24
10
100
1
—
25 wk20
LA
37%
9.5%
4
4
36
13
36
0
—
25 wk19
GB
46%
6.5%
3
1
22
8
27
0
—
25 wk18
DET
42%
3.4%
1
1
15
6
14
0
—
25 wk17
SF
41%
10.3%
4
3
9
8
38
0
—
25 wk16
GB
45%
13.8%
4
3
43
9
50
0
—
25 wk15
CLE
42%
7.4%
2
0
0
11
33
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 21 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
4 of 21
19%
5+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 21
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 21
0%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 21
29%
Kyle Monangai 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, Kyle Monangai has 60 carries for 324 rushing yards (81.0 a game) and 5 catches for 39 receiving yards (1.2 catches and 9.8 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 40% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2025–2025 (19 games)
Catches per game
1.2
1.2
Receiving yards per game
9.8
11.7
Target share
4.4%
6.0%
Kyle Monangai 2025 stats
In 2025 Kyle Monangai had 190 carries for 846 yards and 23 catches for 222 yards over 19 games, with 5 touchdowns, on 41% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016