Sun Oct 18, at NYG: Alvin Kamara ran 7 times for 34 yards, caught 2 for 35, 1 touchdown on 26% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Alvin Kamara is averaging 7.0 carries for 24 rushing yards and 3.0 catches on 30% of snaps, against 11.9 carries for 43 rushing yards and 3.0 catches over 11 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.5 PPR points, RB23 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.5
RB23 this week
Rush attempts
8.5
Rushing yards
41
Receptions
2.7
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
20
Anytime TD
33%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Alvin Kamara snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.7 projected
26 wk6
NYG
26%
13.3%
4
2
35
7
34
1
2.5 -0.5
26 wk5
MIN
27%
8.3%
2
2
-6
3
12
0
2.5 -0.5
26 wk4
ATL
38%
14.9%
7
5
35
7
23
2
2.6 +2.4
26 wk3
LV
32%
2.5%
1
1
5
9
36
0
2.9 -1.9
26 wk2
BAL
29%
18.8%
6
5
7
9
15
0
—
25 wk12
ATL
14%
4.7%
2
2
4
3
11
0
—
25 wk10
CAR
63%
11.5%
3
3
32
22
83
0
—
25 wk9
LA
59%
12.5%
3
1
3
6
14
0
—
25 wk8
TB
51%
4.0%
2
2
24
6
21
0
—
25 wk7
CHI
84%
9.7%
3
3
1
11
28
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 12
58%
5+ receptions
3 of 12
25%
7+ receptions
0 of 12
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 12
8%
Alvin Kamara 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Alvin Kamara has 35 carries for 120 rushing yards (24.0 a game) and 15 catches for 76 receiving yards (3.0 catches and 15.2 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 30% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2017–2025 (133 games)
Catches per game
3.0
4.8
Receiving yards per game
15.2
39.3
Target share
11.6%
19.1%
Alvin Kamara 2025 stats
In 2025 Alvin Kamara had 131 carries for 471 yards and 33 catches for 186 yards over 11 games, with 1 touchdown, on 64% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016