5′10″, 211 lb · age 26 · Illinois; Western Michigan · 2023 draft, round 5
Week 5 stats
Sun Oct 11, at MIA: Chase Brown ran 13 times for 39 yards, caught 3 for 21.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Chase Brown is averaging 14.2 carries for 49 rushing yards and 4.8 catches, against 13.6 carries for 60 rushing yards and 4.1 catches over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 11.3 PPR points, RB25 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
11.3
RB25 this week
Rush attempts
12.7
Rushing yards
45
Receptions
3.9
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
19
Anytime TD
30%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 7 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Chase Brown snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.9 projected
26 wk5
MIA
—
12.9%
4
3
21
13
39
0
4.4 -1.4
26 wk4
JAX
—
20.8%
11
11
71
9
10
0
3.5 +7.5
26 wk3
PIT
—
5.4%
2
2
8
13
61
0
3.8 -1.8
26 wk2
HOU
—
16.1%
5
3
2
20
80
0
—
26 wk1
TB
—
17.6%
6
5
22
16
56
1
—
25 wk18
CLE
—
15.8%
6
4
18
13
72
1
—
25 wk17
ARI
—
9.1%
3
3
40
22
101
2
—
25 wk16
MIA
—
12.9%
4
4
43
12
66
3
—
25 wk15
BAL
—
19.4%
7
7
37
13
53
0
—
25 wk14
BUF
—
11.1%
4
3
12
12
23
2
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
14 of 19
74%
5+ receptions
6 of 19
32%
7+ receptions
4 of 19
21%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 19
37%
Chase Brown 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Chase Brown has 71 carries for 246 rushing yards (49.2 a game) and 24 catches for 124 receiving yards (4.8 catches and 24.8 yards a game), with 1 touchdown.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2023–2025 (45 games)
Catches per game
4.8
3.0
Receiving yards per game
24.8
21.2
Target share
14.6%
10.3%
Chase Brown 2025 stats
In 2025 Chase Brown had 232 carries for 1,019 yards and 69 catches for 437 yards over 17 games, with 11 touchdowns, on 0% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016