Sun Oct 18, at IND: Tyjae Spears ran 1 time for 1 yards, caught 1 for 7 on 24% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Tyjae Spears is averaging 3.0 carries for 11 rushing yards and 2.5 catches on 41% of snaps, against 5.5 carries for 22 rushing yards and 3.5 catches over 13 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 5.0 PPR points, RB49 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
5.0
RB49 this week
Receptions
2.6
0.9 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
14
Anytime TD
11%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.12 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Tyjae Spears snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.6 projected
26 wk6
IND
24%
4.5%
1
1
7
1
1
0
2.4 -1.4
26 wk5
HOU
54%
25.7%
9
9
28
2
0
0
2.2 +6.8
26 wk4
BAL
36%
3.6%
1
1
-1
2
7
0
2.0 -1.0
26 wk3
NYG
47%
0.0%
0
0
0
3
5
0
2.6 -2.6
26 wk2
PHI
36%
11.8%
2
2
29
7
41
0
—
26 wk1
NYJ
50%
14.3%
4
2
12
3
12
0
—
25 wk18
JAX
46%
21.2%
7
7
9
3
18
0
—
25 wk17
NO
53%
5.7%
2
1
-1
6
2
0
—
25 wk16
KC
47%
18.5%
5
5
53
13
52
1
—
25 wk15
SF
42%
7.4%
2
2
2
3
34
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
9 of 15
60%
5+ receptions
4 of 15
27%
7+ receptions
1 of 15
7%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 15
7%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 15
13%
Tyjae Spears 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Tyjae Spears has 18 carries for 66 rushing yards (11.0 a game) and 15 catches for 75 receiving yards (2.5 catches and 12.5 yards a game), on 41% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (42 games)
Catches per game
2.5
3.0
Receiving yards per game
12.5
20.8
Target share
10.0%
12.4%
Tyjae Spears 2025 stats
In 2025 Tyjae Spears had 72 carries for 283 yards and 45 catches for 264 yards over 13 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 46% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016