5′10″, 195 lb · age 28 · Oklahoma State · 2019 draft, round 4
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at CLE: Justice Hill caught 3 of 3 targets for 9 yards on 42% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Justice Hill is averaging 1.7 receptions and 10 receiving yards on 42% of snaps, against 2.1 receptions and 17 receiving yards over 10 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.8 PPR points, RB50 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
4.8
RB50 this week
Receptions
1.8
0.3 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
17%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Justice Hill snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.8 projected
26 wk6
CLE
42%
9.7%
3
3
9
0
0
0
1.6 +1.4
26 wk5
ATL
46%
12.9%
4
2
5
4
73
0
1.8 +0.2
26 wk4
TEN
38%
10.3%
3
2
22
1
3
0
1.7 +0.3
26 wk3
DAL
33%
0.0%
0
0
0
5
33
0
2.2 -2.2
26 wk2
NO
47%
6.9%
2
2
12
2
6
0
—
26 wk1
IND
46%
4.2%
1
1
10
6
18
0
—
25 wk12
NYJ
25%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk10
MIN
27%
7.1%
2
1
12
1
1
1
—
25 wk9
MIA
20%
8.7%
2
2
13
1
2
0
—
25 wk8
CHI
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
2
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
4 of 12
33%
5+ receptions
2 of 12
17%
7+ receptions
0 of 12
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 12
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 12
17%
Justice Hill 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Justice Hill has 18 carries for 133 rushing yards (22.2 a game) and 10 catches for 58 receiving yards (1.7 catches and 9.7 yards a game), on 42% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2019–2025 (92 games)
Catches per game
1.7
1.5
Receiving yards per game
9.7
10.9
Target share
7.3%
6.9%
Justice Hill 2025 stats
In 2025 Justice Hill had 21 catches for 169 yards over 10 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 37% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016