Sun Oct 18, at CLE: Derrick Henry ran 17 times for 58 yards, caught 1 for 2 on 58% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Derrick Henry is averaging 21.7 carries for 89 rushing yards and 1.5 catches on 58% of snaps, against 18.1 carries for 94 rushing yards and 0.9 catches over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 15.5 PPR points, RB8 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.5
RB8 this week
Rush attempts
20.6
Rushing yards
84
Receptions
1.5
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
13
Anytime TD
57%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Derrick Henry snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.5 projected
26 wk6
CLE
58%
3.2%
1
1
2
17
58
0
1.5 -0.5
26 wk5
ATL
55%
6.5%
2
1
18
24
102
1
1.8 -0.8
26 wk4
TEN
62%
6.9%
2
2
6
23
73
1
1.7 +0.3
26 wk3
DAL
67%
5.0%
1
1
0
26
89
2
1.5 -0.5
26 wk2
NO
53%
10.3%
3
3
19
16
68
1
—
26 wk1
IND
54%
4.2%
1
1
19
24
144
3
—
25 wk18
PIT
71%
5.9%
1
0
0
20
126
0
—
25 wk17
GB
63%
0.0%
0
0
0
36
216
4
—
25 wk16
NE
44%
0.0%
0
0
0
18
128
2
—
25 wk15
CIN
37%
0.0%
0
0
0
11
100
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 19
11%
5+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
11 of 19
58%
Derrick Henry 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Derrick Henry has 130 carries for 534 rushing yards (89.0 a game) and 9 catches for 64 receiving yards (1.5 catches and 10.7 yards a game), with 8 touchdowns, on 58% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2016–2025 (162 games)
Catches per game
1.5
1.2
Receiving yards per game
10.7
11.7
Target share
6.0%
6.0%
Derrick Henry 2025 stats
In 2025 Derrick Henry had 307 carries for 1,595 yards and 15 catches for 150 yards over 17 games, with 16 touchdowns, on 55% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
11 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016