Sun Oct 18, at TB: Jaylen Warren ran 14 times for 50 yards, caught 2 for 28 on 75% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Jaylen Warren is averaging 14.0 carries for 77 rushing yards and 3.5 catches on 76% of snaps, against 13.1 carries for 59 rushing yards and 2.4 catches over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 15.6 PPR points, RB7 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.6
RB7 this week
Rush attempts
14.5
Rushing yards
72
Receptions
3.3
0.9 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
31
Anytime TD
35%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jaylen Warren snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.3 projected
26 wk6
TB
75%
9.1%
4
2
28
14
50
0
3.9 -1.9
26 wk5
IND
87%
20.0%
6
6
87
15
101
2
3.5 +2.5
26 wk4
CLE
97%
15.4%
6
3
33
17
93
0
3.5 -0.5
26 wk3
CIN
90%
12.9%
4
3
49
17
127
0
2.9 +0.1
26 wk2
NE
71%
10.8%
4
2
34
11
43
0
—
26 wk1
ATL
37%
16.2%
6
5
27
10
46
0
—
25 wk19
HOU
46%
3.2%
1
1
4
12
43
0
—
25 wk18
BAL
37%
11.4%
5
5
33
14
66
0
—
25 wk17
CLE
32%
0.0%
0
0
0
12
64
0
—
25 wk16
DET
49%
5.3%
2
2
8
14
143
2
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 19
37%
5+ receptions
3 of 19
16%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 19
5%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 19
32%
Jaylen Warren 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Jaylen Warren has 84 carries for 460 rushing yards (76.7 a game) and 21 catches for 258 receiving yards (3.5 catches and 43.0 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 76% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (67 games)
Catches per game
3.5
2.6
Receiving yards per game
43.0
18.9
Target share
14.1%
10.9%
Jaylen Warren 2025 stats
In 2025 Jaylen Warren had 223 carries for 1,001 yards and 41 catches for 337 yards over 17 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 50% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016