Sun Oct 18, at TB: Rico Dowdle ran 7 times for 40 yards, caught 3 for 9 on 27% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 3 games this season Rico Dowdle is averaging 7.3 carries for 26 rushing yards and 2.3 catches on 37% of snaps, against 13.4 carries for 60 rushing yards and 2.2 catches over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 7.8 PPR points, RB37 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
7.8
RB37 this week
Rush attempts
8.3
Rushing yards
36
Receptions
1.7
0.5 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
14
Anytime TD
19%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
His snap share is down, but he is on the injury report, so the drop is not read as a smaller role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Rico Dowdle snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.7 projected
26 wk6
TB
27%
9.1%
4
3
9
7
40
0
1.7 +1.3
26 wk2
NE
26%
5.4%
2
2
22
7
22
0
—
26 wk1
ATL
58%
13.5%
5
2
6
8
15
0
—
25 wk19
LA
36%
5.4%
2
1
6
5
9
0
—
25 wk18
TB
53%
6.7%
2
2
20
7
10
0
—
25 wk17
SEA
64%
23.8%
5
3
4
12
59
0
—
25 wk16
TB
57%
19.4%
6
4
14
9
29
0
—
25 wk15
NO
60%
5.0%
1
1
5
16
49
1
—
25 wk13
LA
42%
10.0%
2
2
21
18
58
0
—
25 wk12
SF
65%
14.8%
4
4
36
6
38
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 20
35%
5+ receptions
1 of 20
5%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 20
10%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
Scored a touchdown
6 of 20
30%
Rico Dowdle 2026 stats
Through 3 games of 2026, Rico Dowdle has 22 carries for 77 rushing yards (25.7 a game) and 7 catches for 37 receiving yards (2.3 catches and 12.3 yards a game), on 37% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (3 games)
2020–2025 (60 games)
Catches per game
2.3
1.6
Receiving yards per game
12.3
11.8
Target share
9.3%
6.4%
Rico Dowdle 2025 stats
In 2025 Rico Dowdle had 241 carries for 1,085 yards and 40 catches for 303 yards over 18 games, with 7 touchdowns, on 55% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016