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If Rico Dowdle is out, who gets his targets?
The Pittsburgh Steelers room absorbs +0.21 receptions, and Jaylen Warren takes the largest single share at +0.21. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Now | If out | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf WR · 96% snaps | 4.10 | 4.10 | +0.00 |
| Michael Pittman WR · 88% snaps | 3.60 | 3.60 | +0.00 |
| Pat Freiermuth TE · 70% snaps | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| Jaylen Warren RB · 54% snaps | 2.70 | 2.91 | +0.21 |
| Roman Wilson WR · 67% snaps | 2.40 | 2.40 | +0.00 |
| Germie Bernard WR · 42% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Darnell Washington TE · 58% snaps | 2.00 | 2.00 | +0.00 |
| Rico Dowdle RB · 42% snaps | 1.80 | — | OUT |
| Ben Skowronek WR · 21% snaps | 0.80 | 0.80 | +0.00 |
| Kaden Wetjen WR · 0% snaps | 0.60 | 0.60 | +0.00 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Rico Dowdle’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection