Sun Oct 11, at NO: Aaron Jones ran 25 times for 113 yards, caught 3 for 4, 1 touchdown on 87% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Aaron Jones is averaging 19.4 carries for 82 rushing yards and 2.4 catches on 73% of snaps, against 11.0 carries for 46 rushing yards and 2.3 catches over 12 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 15.0 PPR points, RB9 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
15.0
RB9 this week
Rush attempts
17.2
Rushing yards
82
Receptions
3.0
0.6 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
26
Anytime TD
31%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Aaron Jones snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.0 projected
26 wk5
NO
87%
10.3%
3
3
4
25
113
1
2.5 +0.5
26 wk4
MIA
73%
24.2%
8
4
34
20
94
0
2.5 +1.5
26 wk3
TB
80%
24.0%
6
5
34
17
58
0
1.7 +3.3
26 wk2
CHI
81%
0.0%
0
0
0
23
105
0
—
26 wk1
GB
46%
4.3%
1
0
0
12
40
1
—
25 wk17
DET
65%
28.6%
4
3
10
18
53
1
—
25 wk16
NYG
64%
13.0%
3
2
8
21
85
0
—
25 wk15
DAL
58%
12.5%
3
3
31
12
34
0
—
25 wk14
WAS
45%
4.3%
1
0
0
14
76
0
—
25 wk13
SEA
37%
13.8%
4
4
22
6
3
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 14 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 14
50%
5+ receptions
0 of 14
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 14
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 14
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 14
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 14
0%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 14
29%
Aaron Jones 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Aaron Jones has 97 carries for 410 rushing yards (82.0 a game) and 12 catches for 72 receiving yards (2.4 catches and 14.4 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 73% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2017–2025 (132 games)
Catches per game
2.4
2.9
Receiving yards per game
14.4
21.9
Target share
12.6%
12.3%
Aaron Jones 2025 stats
In 2025 Aaron Jones had 132 carries for 548 yards and 28 catches for 199 yards over 12 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 55% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
10 seasons of usage, 2017–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016