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If Aaron Jones is out, who gets his targets?
The Minnesota Vikings room absorbs +2.22 receptions, and Jordan Mason takes the largest single share at +0.72. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.
Where the work goes
Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.
Every player in the room
| Player | Catches now | If he sits | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jefferson WR · 96% snaps | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| T.J. Hockenson TE · 68% snaps | 3.50 | 3.54 | +0.04 |
| Jordan Addison WR · 86% snaps | 2.70 | 2.70 | +0.00 |
| Josh Oliver TE · 62% snaps | 1.90 | 1.94 | +0.04 |
| Aaron Jones RB · 64% snaps | 1.70 | — | OUT |
| Jauan Jennings WR · 48% snaps | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
| Demond Claiborne RB · 4% snaps | 0.90 | 1.61 | +0.71 |
| DeeJay Dallas RB · 12% snaps | 0.80 | 1.51 | +0.71 |
| Jordan Mason RB · 45% snaps | 0.70 | 1.42 | +0.72 |
What the data says happens
Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.
| Room | Receptions gained | n | t |
|---|---|---|---|
| Receivers | +0.112 | 2,094 | 2.36 |
| Tight ends | +0.103 | 1,258 | 2.16 |
| Backs | +0.610 | 1,042 | 11.17 |
The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.
Aaron Jones’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection