6′0″, 247 lb · age 28 · Boston College · 2020 draft, round 2
Week 4 stats
Sun Oct 4, vs DET: AJ Dillon ran 5 times for 2 yards, caught 1 for 5 on 15% of snaps.
Stats through week 4; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 4 games this season AJ Dillon is averaging 0.5 receptions and 1 receiving yards on 12% of snaps, against 0.4 receptions and 3 receiving yards over 7 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.6 PPR points, RB53 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
4.6
RB53 this week
Rush attempts
7.1
Rushing yards
25
Receptions
0.8
0.4 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
5
Anytime TD
13%
Returning from a missed week. Players in their first game back come in about a third of a reception below recent form, so this projection is held down rather than reading his last line straight across.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 2 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
AJ Dillon snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.8 projected
26 wk4
DET
15%
2.6%
1
1
5
5
2
0
0.5 +0.5
26 wk3
CLE
16%
2.4%
1
1
-2
4
16
0
0.2 +0.8
26 wk2
ATL
6%
0.0%
0
0
0
3
-3
0
—
26 wk1
CHI
10%
0.0%
0
0
0
5
28
0
—
25 wk18
WAS
3%
2.9%
1
1
3
0
0
0
—
25 wk6
NYG
14%
6.2%
2
2
18
1
2
0
—
25 wk5
DEN
15%
0.0%
0
0
0
2
12
0
—
25 wk4
TB
14%
0.0%
0
0
0
3
17
0
—
25 wk3
LA
7%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk2
KC
17%
0.0%
0
0
0
3
19
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 9 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
5+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 9
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 9
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 9
0%
AJ Dillon 2026 stats
Through 4 games of 2026, AJ Dillon has 17 carries for 43 rushing yards (10.8 a game) and 2 catches for 3 receiving yards (0.5 catches and 0.8 yards a game), on 12% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (4 games)
2020–2025 (68 games)
Catches per game
0.5
1.3
Receiving yards per game
0.8
11.7
Target share
1.2%
5.0%
AJ Dillon 2025 stats
In 2025 AJ Dillon had 3 catches for 21 yards over 7 games, on 12% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016