Kaelon Black

San Francisco 49ers · Running backRB2

5′9″, 208 lb · age 25 · Indiana; James Madison · 2026 draft, round 3

Week 6 stats

Mon Oct 19, vs WAS: Kaelon Black ran 8 times for 34 yards, caught 1 for 3 on 23% of snaps.

Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.

Kaelon Black has no full prior season to anchor to, so this week’s projection leans on his 5 games of current-season usage alone — treat it as a thinner read than a veteran’s.

Week 7 projection

PPR points

4.3

RB55 this week

Rush attempts

5.8

Rushing yards

Receptions

0.4

Receiving yards

Anytime TD

14%

What a realistic week looks like

The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.

Kaelon Black snap share, game by game

Snap shareTarget share

Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.

Game log

Game	Opp	Snap share	Target share	Tgt	Rec	Rec yds	Car	Rush yds	TD	We said
26 wk7	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.4 projected
26 wk6	WAS	23%	3.4%	1	1	3	8	34	0	0.4 +0.6
26 wk5	SEA	18%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	16	0	0.4 -0.4
26 wk4	DEN	26%	0.0%	0	0	0	6	13	0	0.6 -0.6
26 wk3	ARI	15%	3.8%	1	0	0	4	17	0	0.7 -0.7
26 wk2	MIA	33%	0.0%	0	0	0	7	25	0	—
26 wk1	LA	43%	2.9%	1	1	5	14	65	0	—

“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.

Kaelon Black 2026 stats

Through 6 games of 2026, Kaelon Black has 45 carries for 170 rushing yards (28.3 a game) and 2 catches for 8 receiving yards (0.3 catches and 1.3 yards a game), on 26% of snaps.

His first season in the warehouse, so there is no prior year to compare against and no career arc to draw — the projection leans on the league's rookies rather than on him.

	2026 so far (6 games)
Catches per game	0.3
Receiving yards per game	1.3
Target share	1.7%

The whole San Francisco 49ers roomEvery pass-catcher ranked by the usage that predicts production

Related players

The rest of the San Francisco 49ers running back room, by target share.

Christian McCaffrey RB1
Jordan James RB3

Ranked next to him at RB for week 7.

Audric Estimé RB52 · CLE
AJ Dillon RB53 · CAR
Corey Kiner RB54 · NE
Kaleb Johnson RB56 · GB
Emmett Johnson RB57 · KC
Jaylen Wright RB58 · MIA

What we have measured about running backs

Does a new head coach change who gets the ball?It changes WHO, not how much Do touchdowns repeat from year to year?Much less than receptions

Projections are as-of-week with no lookahead · usage from official play-by-play and snap counts · 2026 week 7