Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If Justice Hill is out, who gets his targets?

The Baltimore Ravens room absorbs +0.37 receptions, and Rasheen Ali takes the largest single share at +0.19. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the running back room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Justice Hill sitsRasheen Ali+0.2RB 0% snapsDerrick Henry+0.2RB 54% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
Zay Flowers WR · 29% snaps4.304.30+0.00
Mark Andrews TE · 72% snaps3.403.40+0.00
Rashod Bateman WR · 86% snaps2.902.90+0.00
Justice Hill RB · 46% snaps2.20OUT
Derrick Henry RB · 54% snaps1.501.68+0.18
Ja'Kobi Lane WR · 40% snaps1.401.40+0.00
LaJohntay Wester WR · 41% snaps1.101.10+0.00
Chris Moore WR · 46% snaps0.900.90+0.00
Durham Smythe TE · 58% snaps0.800.80+0.00
Devontez Walker WR · 29% snaps0.600.60+0.00
Matthew Hibner TE · 34% snaps0.600.60+0.00
Rasheen Ali RB · 0% snaps0.500.69+0.19

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1122,0942.36
Tight ends+0.1031,2582.16
Backs+0.6101,04211.17

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Justice Hill’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3