Sun Oct 18, vs ARI: Davis Allen played 31% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Davis Allen is averaging 1.0 receptions and 10 receiving yards on 42% of snaps, against 1.2 receptions and 10 receiving yards over 20 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 4.2 PPR points, TE40 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
4.2
TE40 this week
Receptions
1.4
0.2 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
17
Anytime TD
15%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Davis Allen snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.4 projected
26 wk6
ARI
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
0
0
1.4 -1.4
26 wk5
BUF
50%
3.7%
2
2
24
0
0
0
1.4 +0.6
26 wk4
PHI
48%
4.0%
2
0
0
0
0
0
2.1 -2.1
26 wk3
DEN
36%
6.1%
3
2
19
0
0
0
1.4 +0.6
26 wk2
NYG
52%
3.3%
1
1
7
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
SF
34%
3.7%
1
1
13
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
SEA
62%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
CHI
12%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
CAR
43%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
ARI
71%
2.7%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 22
14%
5+ receptions
0 of 22
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 22
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 22
14%
Davis Allen 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Davis Allen has 6 catches for 63 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 10.5 yards a game), on 42% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (52 games)
Catches per game
1.0
0.8
Receiving yards per game
10.5
7.4
Target share
3.5%
3.4%
Davis Allen 2025 stats
In 2025 Davis Allen had 24 catches for 208 yards over 20 games, with 3 touchdowns, on 49% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016