Sun Oct 18, vs ARI: Colby Parkinson caught 5 of 6 targets for 31 yards, 1 touchdown on 62% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Colby Parkinson is averaging 1.8 receptions and 11 receiving yards on 64% of snaps, against 2.8 receptions and 31 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 7.2 PPR points, TE24 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
7.2
TE24 this week
Receptions
2.6
0.2 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
27
Anytime TD
26%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Colby Parkinson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.6 projected
26 wk6
ARI
62%
18.8%
6
5
31
1
2.2 +2.8
26 wk5
BUF
65%
3.7%
2
1
3
0
2.0 -1.0
26 wk3
DEN
43%
2.0%
1
0
0
0
2.6 -2.6
26 wk2
NYG
71%
6.7%
2
2
15
0
—
26 wk1
SF
77%
7.4%
2
1
6
0
—
25 wk21
SEA
77%
11.8%
4
3
62
0
—
25 wk20
CHI
68%
17.5%
7
3
56
0
—
25 wk19
CAR
75%
7.1%
3
2
34
1
—
25 wk18
ARI
84%
18.9%
7
4
36
2
—
25 wk17
ATL
78%
19.4%
7
6
53
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
10 of 20
50%
5+ receptions
2 of 20
10%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 20
20%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 20
5%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 20
35%
Colby Parkinson 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Colby Parkinson has 9 catches for 55 receiving yards (1.8 catches and 11.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 64% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2020–2025 (90 games)
Catches per game
1.8
1.6
Receiving yards per game
11.0
16.8
Target share
7.7%
7.1%
Colby Parkinson 2025 stats
In 2025 Colby Parkinson had 51 catches for 560 yards over 18 games, with 9 touchdowns, on 63% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
7 seasons of usage, 2020–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016