Sun Oct 18, at GB: Jake Ferguson caught 2 of 3 targets for 13 yards on 54% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Jake Ferguson is averaging 2.8 receptions and 19 receiving yards on 69% of snaps, against 4.8 receptions and 35 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 7.4 PPR points, TE23 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
7.4
TE23 this week
Receptions
3.1
1.8 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
29
Anytime TD
28%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Jake Ferguson snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.1 projected
26 wk6
GB
54%
5.6%
3
2
13
0
3.0 -1.0
26 wk5
TB
83%
14.3%
6
3
19
0
3.6 -0.6
26 wk4
HOU
71%
9.3%
4
3
11
0
3.7 -0.7
26 wk3
BAL
69%
12.5%
5
3
23
1
3.7 -0.7
26 wk2
WAS
60%
12.9%
4
4
43
2
—
26 wk1
NYG
76%
6.7%
2
2
6
0
—
25 wk18
NYG
60%
8.7%
2
1
5
0
—
25 wk17
WAS
29%
5.6%
2
1
6
1
—
25 wk16
LAC
69%
12.5%
4
3
19
0
—
25 wk15
MIN
71%
11.4%
4
2
16
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
14 of 19
74%
5+ receptions
10 of 19
53%
7+ receptions
5 of 19
26%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 19
26%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 19
11%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
7 of 19
37%
Jake Ferguson 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Jake Ferguson has 17 catches for 115 receiving yards (2.8 catches and 19.2 yards a game), with 3 touchdowns, on 69% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2022–2025 (67 games)
Catches per game
2.8
3.6
Receiving yards per game
19.2
32.2
Target share
10.2%
13.5%
Jake Ferguson 2025 stats
In 2025 Jake Ferguson had 82 catches for 600 yards over 17 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 67% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
5 seasons of usage, 2022–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016