Thu Oct 15, at DEN: AJ Barner caught 3 of 4 targets for 16 yards on 93% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season AJ Barner is averaging 2.5 receptions and 23 receiving yards on 90% of snaps, against 2.9 receptions and 29 receiving yards over 20 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.1 PPR points, TE21 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.1
TE21 this week
Receptions
3.0
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Anytime TD
26%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
AJ Barner snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.0 projected
26 wk6
DEN
93%
8.7%
4
3
16
0
0
0
2.9 +0.1
26 wk5
SF
95%
18.5%
5
3
20
0
0
0
3.1 -0.1
26 wk4
LAC
90%
15.0%
3
1
12
0
0
0
3.2 -2.2
26 wk3
WAS
91%
20.0%
9
5
69
0
0
0
2.7 +2.3
26 wk2
ARI
80%
3.8%
1
1
8
1
1
1
—
26 wk1
NE
88%
8.3%
2
2
13
0
0
0
—
25 wk22
NE
90%
11.1%
4
4
54
0
0
1
—
25 wk21
LA
96%
8.8%
3
2
13
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
SF
79%
0.0%
0
0
0
1
2
0
—
25 wk18
SF
61%
11.5%
3
2
14
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 22 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 22
50%
5+ receptions
2 of 22
9%
7+ receptions
2 of 22
9%
50+ receiving yards
4 of 22
18%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 22
0%
Scored a touchdown
8 of 22
36%
AJ Barner 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, AJ Barner has 15 catches for 138 receiving yards (2.5 catches and 23.0 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 90% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2024–2025 (37 games)
Catches per game
2.5
2.4
Receiving yards per game
23.0
22.5
Target share
12.4%
10.1%
AJ Barner 2025 stats
In 2025 AJ Barner had 58 catches for 586 yards over 20 games, with 8 touchdowns, on 79% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016