Thu Oct 15, at DEN: Elijah Arroyo played 6% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Elijah Arroyo is averaging 0.2 receptions and 3 receiving yards on 23% of snaps, against 1.1 receptions and 13 receiving yards over 14 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 1.5 PPR points, TE73 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
1.5
TE73 this week
Receptions
0.4
0.7 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
Anytime TD
3%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 1 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Elijah Arroyo snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
0.4 projected
26 wk6
DEN
6%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.4 -0.4
26 wk5
SF
32%
3.7%
1
0
0
0
0.5 -0.5
26 wk4
LAC
32%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.6 -0.6
26 wk3
WAS
27%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0.6 -0.6
26 wk2
ARI
21%
3.8%
1
1
17
0
—
26 wk1
NE
22%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk22
NE
26%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
ATL
11%
3.3%
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk13
MIN
37%
8.7%
2
0
0
0
—
25 wk12
TEN
38%
4.0%
1
1
5
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 16 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
1 of 16
6%
5+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 16
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 16
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 16
6%
Elijah Arroyo 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Elijah Arroyo has 1 catches for 17 receiving yards (0.2 catches and 2.8 yards a game), on 23% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2025–2025 (14 games)
Catches per game
0.2
1.1
Receiving yards per game
2.8
12.8
Target share
1.3%
7.3%
Elijah Arroyo 2025 stats
In 2025 Elijah Arroyo had 15 catches for 179 yards over 14 games, with 1 touchdown, on 39% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016