6′5″, 258 lb · age 27 · Penn State · 2021 draft, round 2
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, at TB: Pat Freiermuth caught 2 of 3 targets for 11 yards on 72% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Pat Freiermuth is averaging 3.5 receptions and 30 receiving yards on 69% of snaps, against 2.3 receptions and 28 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 8.4 PPR points, TE19 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
8.4
TE19 this week
Receptions
3.0
0.7 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
32
Anytime TD
33%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 1 and 6 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Pat Freiermuth snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
3.0 projected
26 wk6
TB
72%
6.8%
3
2
11
0
0
0
3.3 -1.3
26 wk5
IND
68%
23.3%
7
5
44
1
1
2
3.2 +1.8
26 wk4
CLE
75%
12.8%
5
3
17
0
0
1
3.2 -0.2
26 wk3
CIN
60%
12.9%
4
2
30
1
1
0
3.1 -1.1
26 wk2
NE
66%
13.5%
5
4
32
1
2
0
—
26 wk1
ATL
73%
13.5%
5
5
46
0
0
1
—
25 wk19
HOU
68%
9.7%
3
1
18
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
BAL
69%
11.4%
5
3
51
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
CLE
70%
13.5%
5
3
63
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
DET
43%
10.5%
4
4
20
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
13 of 20
65%
5+ receptions
2 of 20
10%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
3 of 20
15%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 20
5%
100+ receiving yards
1 of 20
5%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 20
20%
Pat Freiermuth 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Pat Freiermuth has 21 catches for 180 receiving yards (3.5 catches and 30.0 yards a game), with 4 touchdowns, on 69% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2021–2025 (82 games)
Catches per game
3.5
3.3
Receiving yards per game
30.0
34.3
Target share
13.8%
14.5%
Pat Freiermuth 2025 stats
In 2025 Pat Freiermuth had 42 catches for 504 yards over 18 games, with 4 touchdowns, on 51% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
6 seasons of usage, 2021–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016