Sun Oct 18, at TB: Darnell Washington caught 4 of 6 targets for 25 yards, 1 touchdown on 71% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Darnell Washington is averaging 2.5 receptions and 26 receiving yards on 66% of snaps, against 1.9 receptions and 23 receiving yards over 16 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 7.2 PPR points, TE25 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
7.2
TE25 this week
Receptions
2.5
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
27
Anytime TD
31%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.11 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Darnell Washington snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.5 projected
26 wk6
TB
71%
13.6%
6
4
25
1
2.3 +1.7
26 wk5
IND
63%
10.0%
3
2
12
0
2.4 -0.4
26 wk4
CLE
71%
12.8%
5
3
27
1
2.3 +0.7
26 wk3
CIN
76%
12.9%
4
3
67
0
2.0 +1.0
26 wk2
NE
53%
5.4%
2
1
7
0
—
26 wk1
ATL
64%
5.4%
2
2
18
0
—
25 wk17
CLE
14%
5.4%
2
2
15
0
—
25 wk16
DET
68%
10.5%
4
3
36
0
—
25 wk15
MIA
73%
14.8%
4
3
25
0
—
25 wk14
BAL
29%
3.0%
1
1
12
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 18 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
7 of 18
39%
5+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 18
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 18
11%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 18
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 18
6%
Darnell Washington 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Darnell Washington has 15 catches for 156 receiving yards (2.5 catches and 26.0 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 66% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (52 games)
Catches per game
2.5
1.1
Receiving yards per game
26.0
12.2
Target share
10.0%
5.5%
Darnell Washington 2025 stats
In 2025 Darnell Washington had 31 catches for 364 yards over 16 games, with 1 touchdown, on 57% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016