Slate StatsNFLInjury impact

If Darnell Washington is out, who gets his targets?

The Pittsburgh Steelers room absorbs +0.20 receptions, and Pat Freiermuth takes the largest single share at +0.20. The work stays overwhelmingly inside the tight end room.

Where the work goes

Change in projected receptions for every other player in the offense. The bars are small on purpose — a vacated role is shared out, and any tool showing one replacement absorbing a whole target load is telling you something the data does not support.

Receptions gained if Darnell Washington sitsPat Freiermuth+0.2TE 70% snapschange in projected receptions

Every player in the room

PlayerNowIf outChange
DK Metcalf WR · 96% snaps4.104.10+0.00
Michael Pittman WR · 88% snaps3.603.60+0.00
Pat Freiermuth TE · 70% snaps3.103.30+0.20
Jaylen Warren RB · 54% snaps2.702.70+0.00
Roman Wilson WR · 67% snaps2.402.40+0.00
Germie Bernard WR · 42% snaps2.002.00+0.00
Darnell Washington TE · 58% snaps2.00OUT
Rico Dowdle RB · 42% snaps1.801.80+0.00
Ben Skowronek WR · 21% snaps0.800.80+0.00
Kaden Wetjen WR · 0% snaps0.600.60+0.00

What the data says happens

Measured across every regular-season game from 2018 onward, each beneficiary compared against his own trailing four-game form and net of what the same players do in weeks the room’s number one actually plays.

RoomReceptions gainednt
Receivers+0.1072,1602.29
Tight ends+0.4921,0249.57
Backs-0.0451,259-0.92

The room total is predictable. Which player takes it is not. Every candidate predictor of who gains — pecking order, snap share, route depth, trailing targets — correlates at roughly r = 0.02. In any single week one player usually takes about 60% of what was vacated; it is simply not predictably the same one.

Darnell Washington’s full stats and usageSnap share, target share, game log and this week’s projection

Cascade effects 2018–2026, paired within player, net of control · projections as-of-week with no lookahead · 2026 week 3