Sun Oct 18, at PHI: Darren Waller was targeted 2 times without a catch on 46% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Darren Waller is averaging 2.6 receptions and 30 receiving yards on 46% of snaps, against 2.7 receptions and 31 receiving yards over 9 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 6.7 PPR points, TE26 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
6.7
TE26 this week
Receptions
2.7
0.0 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
29
Anytime TD
26%
He is used both near the goal line and on third down, roles that run slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.11 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 5 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Darren Waller snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.7 projected
26 wk6
PHI
46%
5.7%
2
0
0
0
0
0
2.6 -2.6
26 wk4
DET
53%
15.4%
6
3
36
0
0
0
2.8 +0.2
26 wk3
CLE
51%
19.0%
8
5
51
0
0
0
2.4 +2.6
26 wk2
ATL
44%
9.4%
3
3
33
0
0
2
—
26 wk1
CHI
35%
5.9%
2
2
28
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
TB
38%
13.6%
3
1
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
CIN
49%
17.2%
5
3
40
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
PIT
54%
30.8%
8
7
66
0
0
2
—
25 wk14
NYJ
37%
14.3%
3
1
13
1
4
0
—
25 wk13
NO
47%
15.0%
3
2
47
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 11 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
5 of 11
45%
5+ receptions
2 of 11
18%
7+ receptions
1 of 11
9%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 11
18%
75+ receiving yards
1 of 11
9%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 11
0%
Scored a touchdown
5 of 11
45%
Darren Waller 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Darren Waller has 13 catches for 148 receiving yards (2.6 catches and 29.6 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 46% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2016–2025 (90 games)
Catches per game
2.6
4.2
Receiving yards per game
29.6
49.6
Target share
11.1%
18.6%
Darren Waller 2025 stats
In 2025 Darren Waller had 24 catches for 283 yards over 9 games, with 6 touchdowns, on 45% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
9 seasons of usage, 2016–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016