Sun Oct 18, at PHI: Mitchell Evans was targeted once without a catch on 54% of snaps.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Mitchell Evans is averaging 1.2 receptions and 13 receiving yards on 48% of snaps, against 1.1 receptions and 10 receiving yards over 18 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.6 PPR points, TE49 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.6
TE49 this week
Receptions
1.6
0.5 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
15
Anytime TD
12%
His snap share has grown from last season. The projection is lifted to reflect the larger role.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Mitchell Evans snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.6 projected
26 wk6
PHI
54%
2.9%
1
0
0
1
1
0
1.8 -1.8
26 wk4
DET
61%
2.6%
1
1
8
0
0
0
1.5 -0.5
26 wk3
CLE
27%
7.1%
3
3
36
0
0
0
1.3 +1.7
26 wk2
ATL
58%
3.1%
1
1
13
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
CHI
40%
5.9%
2
1
9
0
0
0
—
25 wk19
LA
46%
2.7%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
TB
45%
6.7%
2
1
5
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
SEA
57%
9.5%
2
1
5
1
1
0
—
25 wk16
TB
30%
9.7%
3
3
23
0
0
0
—
25 wk15
NO
44%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 20 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
3 of 20
15%
5+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 20
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 20
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 20
10%
Mitchell Evans 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Mitchell Evans has 6 catches for 66 receiving yards (1.2 catches and 13.2 yards a game), on 48% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2025–2025 (18 games)
Catches per game
1.2
1.1
Receiving yards per game
13.2
9.5
Target share
4.3%
5.2%
Mitchell Evans 2025 stats
In 2025 Mitchell Evans had 19 catches for 171 yards over 18 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 38% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
2 seasons of usage, 2025–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016