Thu Oct 15, vs SEA: Nate Adkins played 37% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Nate Adkins is averaging 0.7 receptions and 7 receiving yards on 31% of snaps, against 0.6 receptions and 4 receiving yards over 11 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.2 PPR points, TE51 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.2
TE51 this week
Receptions
1.0
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
8
Anytime TD
20%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Nate Adkins snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.0 projected
26 wk6
SEA
37%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.9 -0.9
26 wk5
LAC
31%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.0 -1.0
26 wk4
SF
21%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
1.1 -1.1
26 wk3
LA
34%
6.5%
2
1
8
0
0
1
1.0 -0.0
26 wk2
JAX
37%
10.3%
3
3
32
1
6
1
—
26 wk1
KC
25%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk21
NE
28%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk20
BUF
42%
2.4%
1
1
1
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
LAC
39%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk16
JAX
11%
2.2%
1
0
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 13 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
1 of 13
8%
5+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 13
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 13
0%
Scored a touchdown
2 of 13
15%
Nate Adkins 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Nate Adkins has 4 catches for 40 receiving yards (0.7 catches and 6.7 yards a game), with 2 touchdowns, on 31% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2023–2025 (39 games)
Catches per game
0.7
0.6
Receiving yards per game
6.7
4.8
Target share
2.8%
2.5%
Nate Adkins 2025 stats
In 2025 Nate Adkins had 7 catches for 49 yards over 11 games, with 1 touchdown, on 33% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
4 seasons of usage, 2023–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016