6′5″, 260 lb · age 30 · Washington · 2019 draft, round 2
Week 5 stats
Sun Oct 11, at MIA: Drew Sample caught 1 of 1 target for 5 yards on 52% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Drew Sample is averaging 1.0 receptions and 5 receiving yards on 51% of snaps, against 0.9 receptions and 6 receiving yards over 17 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 3.1 PPR points, TE53 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
3.1
TE53 this week
Receptions
1.0
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
12
Anytime TD
14%
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Drew Sample snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.0 projected
26 wk5
MIA
52%
3.2%
1
1
5
0
0.9 +0.1
26 wk4
JAX
26%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
1.3 -1.3
26 wk3
PIT
51%
5.4%
2
1
0
0
1.7 -0.7
26 wk2
HOU
60%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
TB
66%
8.8%
3
3
19
0
—
25 wk18
CLE
72%
7.9%
3
3
17
0
—
25 wk17
ARI
65%
3.0%
1
1
8
0
—
25 wk16
MIA
66%
6.5%
2
2
31
0
—
25 wk15
BAL
54%
5.6%
2
2
12
0
—
25 wk14
BUF
45%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 19 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 19
11%
5+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 19
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 19
0%
Scored a touchdown
1 of 19
5%
Drew Sample 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Drew Sample has 5 catches for 24 receiving yards (1.0 catches and 4.8 yards a game), on 51% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2019–2025 (99 games)
Catches per game
1.0
1.2
Receiving yards per game
4.8
8.5
Target share
3.5%
4.3%
Drew Sample 2025 stats
In 2025 Drew Sample had 15 catches for 106 yards over 17 games, with 1 touchdown, on 54% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
8 seasons of usage, 2019–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016