6′3″, 253 lb · age 30 · Indiana; Nassau CC · 2018 draft, round 4
Week 6 stats
Sun Oct 18, vs BUF: Ian Thomas played 21% of snaps without a touch.
Stats through week 6; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 6 games this season Ian Thomas is averaging 0.7 receptions and 9 receiving yards on 34% of snaps, against 0.9 receptions and 8 receiving yards over 15 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 2.7 PPR points, TE56 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
2.7
TE56 this week
Receptions
1.0
0.1 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
9
Anytime TD
11%
He is the third-down option, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.06 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 3 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Ian Thomas snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
1.0 projected
26 wk6
BUF
21%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
1.1 -1.1
26 wk5
NE
40%
2.8%
1
1
9
0
0.6 +0.4
26 wk4
KC
31%
4.2%
2
2
32
1
0.7 +1.3
26 wk3
NO
20%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
1.1 -1.1
26 wk2
LAC
49%
3.4%
1
1
11
0
—
26 wk1
MIA
46%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk18
KC
39%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk17
NYG
36%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
DEN
50%
7.1%
2
2
17
0
—
25 wk13
LAC
56%
4.5%
1
1
8
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 17 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
2 of 17
12%
5+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
7+ receptions
0 of 17
0%
50+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
75+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 17
0%
Scored a touchdown
0 of 17
0%
Ian Thomas 2026 stats
Through 6 games of 2026, Ian Thomas has 4 catches for 52 receiving yards (0.7 catches and 8.7 yards a game), with 1 touchdown, on 34% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (6 games)
2018–2025 (113 games)
Catches per game
0.7
1.2
Receiving yards per game
8.7
10.4
Target share
1.7%
5.4%
Ian Thomas 2025 stats
In 2025 Ian Thomas had 13 catches for 114 yards over 15 games, on 36% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016