Over 12 games last season Brock Bowers averaged 5.3 receptions and 57 yards on 86% of snaps. For week 4 the model projects 5.6 receptions.
Week 4 projection
Receptions
5.6
0.3 above his 2025 average
Receiving yards
82
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 2 and 9 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
How his role is trending
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.98 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.94 and touchdowns 0.72. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
Car
Rush yds
TD
We said
26 wk4
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
5.6 projected
26 wk3
NO
79%
43.3%
13
10
116
0
0
1
—
25 wk16
HOU
98%
22.7%
5
5
33
0
0
1
—
25 wk15
PHI
90%
32.0%
8
6
28
0
0
0
—
25 wk14
DEN
100%
17.9%
5
4
46
0
0
1
—
25 wk13
LAC
98%
18.2%
4
4
63
0
0
2
—
25 wk12
CLE
96%
21.4%
9
6
55
0
0
0
—
25 wk11
DAL
97%
30.8%
12
7
72
0
0
0
—
25 wk10
DEN
83%
12.0%
3
1
31
1
-4
0
—
25 wk9
JAX
81%
34.2%
13
12
127
1
6
3
—
25 wk4
CHI
77%
30.0%
6
5
46
0
0
0
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 12 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
11 of 12
92%
5+ receptions
8 of 12
67%
7+ receptions
2 of 12
17%
50+ receiving yards
5 of 12
42%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 12
17%
100+ receiving yards
2 of 12
17%
Scored a touchdown
4 of 12
33%
Career by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Season
Games
Catches/gm
Rec yds/gm
Targets/gm
TDs, season
Snap share
Target share
2026 so far
1
10.0
116.0
13.0
1
79%
43.3%
2025
12
5.3
56.7
7.2
7
86%
23.4%
2024
17
6.6
70.2
9.0
5
85%
25.5%
3 seasons of usage, 2024–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016