6′6″, 245 lb · age 31 · Penn State · 2018 draft, round 2
Week 5 stats
Sun Oct 11, at MIA: Mike Gesicki caught 1 of 2 targets for 4 yards, 1 touchdown on 45% of snaps.
Stats through week 5; the week 7 projection below. Checked Oct 21, 2026. Full game log.
Through 5 games this season Mike Gesicki is averaging 2.4 receptions and 32 receiving yards on 45% of snaps, against 2.2 receptions and 24 receiving yards over 13 games last season. For week 7 the model projects 6.4 PPR points, TE27 this week.
Week 7 projection
PPR points
6.4
TE27 this week
Receptions
2.1
0.1 below his 2025 average
Receiving yards
24
Anytime TD
31%
He is used near the goal line, a role that runs slightly ahead of trailing form: +0.07 receptions.
What a realistic week looks like
The projection is the center of this, not a prediction of one number. Eight weeks in ten he lands between 0 and 4 receptions. The shaded bars are that range. This distribution is calibrated — predicted against realized agrees within 0.012 in every decile across 49,202 checks.
Mike Gesicki snap share, game by game
Snap shareTarget share
Role is the most repeatable thing a player has. Snap share reproduces at 0.96 between halves of a season; receptions manage 0.89 and touchdowns 0.56. When these lines move, production follows — not the other way round. Snap share leaders.
Game log
Game
Opp
Snap share
Target share
Tgt
Rec
Rec yds
TD
We said
26 wk7
—
—
—
—
—
—
—
2.1 projected
26 wk5
MIA
45%
6.5%
2
1
4
1
2.3 -1.3
26 wk4
JAX
62%
9.4%
5
3
40
1
2.3 +0.7
26 wk3
PIT
51%
8.1%
3
3
37
1
2.1 +0.9
26 wk2
HOU
35%
0.0%
0
0
0
0
—
26 wk1
TB
33%
20.6%
7
5
78
1
—
25 wk18
CLE
38%
5.3%
2
2
13
0
—
25 wk17
ARI
23%
6.1%
2
2
47
0
—
25 wk16
MIA
48%
12.9%
4
3
35
1
—
25 wk15
BAL
57%
5.6%
2
1
11
0
—
25 wk14
BUF
42%
16.7%
6
6
86
1
—
“We said” is the projection as it was published that week, stored before the game, with the miss beside it. Re-running today’s model on a past week would grade a model that did not exist when the number went out, so those weeks show a dash instead.
How often he has actually done it
Rates over his last 15 games. A projection says what to expect on average; this says how often the thing you actually need has happened.
Outcome
Games it happened
How often
3+ receptions
5 of 15
33%
5+ receptions
2 of 15
13%
7+ receptions
0 of 15
0%
50+ receiving yards
2 of 15
13%
75+ receiving yards
2 of 15
13%
100+ receiving yards
0 of 15
0%
Scored a touchdown
3 of 15
20%
Mike Gesicki 2026 stats
Through 5 games of 2026, Mike Gesicki has 12 catches for 159 receiving yards (2.4 catches and 31.8 yards a game), with 4 touchdowns, on 45% of snaps.
Against the rest of his career
2026 so far (5 games)
2018–2025 (129 games)
Catches per game
2.4
2.8
Receiving yards per game
31.8
29.8
Target share
8.9%
12.0%
Mike Gesicki 2025 stats
In 2025 Mike Gesicki had 28 catches for 307 yards over 13 games, with 2 touchdowns, on 39% of snaps.
Season by season
Role is the part of a player that carries. Snap share repeats at 0.98 between halves of a season and target share at 0.96, so this line is a far better guide to what comes next than a points total would be.
Per-game rates over the games he appeared in. Opportunity is what reproduces — carries repeat at 0.97 between halves of a season and target share at 0.92 — while the yards it turns into are a separate and noisier question.
Receiving yards per game reproduce at 0.86 between halves of a season, against 0.61 for yards per catch — which is why this is modeled directly rather than as catches times yards per catch.
The least predictable thing a skill player does. Touchdown rate repeats at 0.55 between halves of a season against 0.89 for catches, so a spike here is mostly not a property of the player. Per game over the games he appeared in, so a season in progress is comparable to a finished one.
9 seasons of usage, 2018–2026 · per-game rates over games he appeared in · snap counts are from official play-by-play and begin in 2016